Hang Seng Bank: October 19 currency and gold market news

Updated: October 19, 2015  Views: 6

According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures show that, as of last Tuesday (13 May) on the Chicago futures market trading in currency futures, the net position to further reduce the amount of dollars, and fell below the level of $ 20 billion of net positions, and dropped only 18.97 billion US dollars, becoming the lowest level since the amount of 22 July 2014. Back view of the week's net position on the dollar amount of $ 20.89 billion. Market holdings of US dollar is not without reason, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) of Survey shows that now the market is estimated that the next year in March, the chance of the Fed raising interest rates, only 52%, that is only half the half. In addition to the dollar, all the currencies of the most noteworthy is the New Zealand dollar. Although the market worried that the RBNZ [microblogging] there is still the opportunity to cut interest rates, but not to raise interest rates as long as the United States one day, I believe that New Zealand interest rate is still capable of a dominant, material which explains the investors still turn to support the New Zealand dollar, making last week the net position of reason.

Today (19th) China will announce third-quarter GDP. In annual comparison, the market is estimated China's third quarter GDP will be a great opportunity from 7 percent growth in the second quarter to only 6.8 percent growth. But that is the case, I believe the market It concerns the extent of the People's Bank last month, far less than the yuan depreciated 2% of cases, because at that time the market for the Chinese economy is slowing down a bit less than expected, but now the market has enough mental preparation to face the economic slowdown in China. Moreover, at present China Leadership also give the market feel more positive face of economic difficulties in the past. This is also expected to help restore market confidence in the Chinese economy as well as investment prospects.

As for this week, is another focus of the ECB rate decision on Thursday will Maintain all monetary policy unchanged, although the market consensus, but should make the German Volkswagen incident cast a shadow over the economic outlook, coupled with the euro zone itself in the face in September a 0.1 percent annual rate of deflation case, the market will focus on President Mario Draghi at the conference tendency to push the amount of bandwidth. In fact, I believe that Mr Draghi how strong this week's meeting on interest rates will show a tendency to push the amount of width, We need to look at the level of the euro as the euro near $ 1.15, which may force the Drudge speak more strongly to push the amount of broad remarks. Rather, as the euro fell below the $ 1.13 expected Drudge is able to accept the euro level and temporarily depress the euro will not be a statement.

In addition to the European Central Bank, also meeting on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada interest rates. Given the current New York oil price of about $ 47 by the steady level, no further decline in the situation, with the face of the local property market hot, really do not see the Bank of Canada have any Motivation To make a rate cut. feed a great opportunity to Canadian interest rates will always be maintained at the current level of 0.5% by the end. Memories of the Bank of Canada cut interest rates twice, respectively in January and July this year, make, when all is action facing the international oil price plunge forced to make. In addition to meeting on interest rates this week, Canada will also have a number of important economic figures released worthy of our attention. On Thursday, Canada will report retail sales figures, which will be released on Friday 9 month rate of inflation. Politically, we can not ignore today (the 19th) Canada's national elections. According to the latest poll by Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives are lagging behind the biggest opposition Liberal Party 8 percentage point seems After tonight, the election will be a great opportunity to replace the government of Canada.

Hang Seng Bank

2015-10-19


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