Strong dollar every step back to kill massive sell orders emerged gold receded

Updated: October 20, 2015  Views: 34

FX168's International spot gold on Monday (October 19) for the third consecutive trading day down, the highest hit $ 1,177 / oz level, the lowest reach $ 1,168.85 / ounce, 200-day moving average fall despite Fed rate hike is still uncertainty about the timing so gold is supported, but the US economic data released on Friday the market for the Fed to raise interest rates expected to occur a little change, rising dollar makes gold highs from three and a half months. gold failed to break $ 1,200 / ounce mark, upward momentum weakened In addition, China in the third quarter GDP data released earlier days better than expected, slightly easing the recent market concerns about the economic slowdown in the country, so that risk aversion has cooled. At the same time, spot silver also fell below the 200-day average $ 15.98, the lowest dropping $ 15.71 / ounce.

According to reports, COMEX most active December gold futures traded 2598 22:37 GMT hand in one minute, a large number of sell orders leading to the spot price of gold fell below $ 1,170 / ounce.

China third quarter GDP fell below 7 percent, but the dollar continued to rise higher than expected

China's National Bureau of Statistics data released Monday show that third quarter GDP grew 6.9%, slightly higher than the median forecast of 6.8 percent, but still hit the lowest since the first quarter of 2009, third quarter GDP growth of 1.8%.

The main indicators of economic performance in January-September of fixed asset investment grew 10.3% in September-scale industrial added value grew by 5.7%, worse than forecast, respectively 10.8% and 6%, total retail sales of social consumer goods up by 10.9% , better than the expected 10.8%.

China GDP growth slowed but slightly better than expected, investors have eased worries about a hard landing, provide support for the global market. China's economic slowdown is the main concern of recent IMF [microblogging] Financial Stability Report noted, and 2015 global economic growth is expected mainly due to its fall. Therefore, China's economic data or other factors into account economies determine the economic outlook, the Fed believes the health situation of China's economy in its Monetary Policy Report in September of investors We will continue to pay close attention to China's economic data trends, after all, the dominant force in the Chinese economy is an important emerging market.

Since the days of stable risk appetite, the dollar rebounded to maintain, and test 94.95 on the probe, was approaching 95 important juncture.

Xinxinbaopeng! US builder confidence index climbed to near 10-year high

Since there are signs that the real estate market demand of the world's largest economy will remain stable in the coming months, the US builder confidence index to rise, the highest in nearly 10 years high.

Data National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released on Monday showed the US October NAHB housing market index rose to 64, the highest since October 2005, as amended on September 61.

So far this year, the US labor market cumulative increase of 1.8 million working population, mortgage rates at historic lows, which also gave the American people to buy houses facilitated. Builders confidence to rise, more houses will boost construction and help alleviate the shortage of available housing, thus pushing up prices.

Wall Street Journal commented that the data was better than expected, this index since mid-2014 on the show active status, this month is a record high level in 10 years, mainly because the US labor market moving solid job growth, the economy continues upward, coupled with low interest rates factor, pent-up demand to be released, indicating the housing market in this important economic areas of strong growth momentum.

High frequency economy (HFE) economist Jim O'Sullivan: US builder confidence that the US economy strong, mean and domestic demand continued to offset weakness in housing problems in the US manufacturing sector.

With the Fed expected to raise interest rates during the year the gold price ups and downs attention Yellen speech

Because the United States in September retail sales, inflation, as well as several regional Fed manufacturing data released last week were unsatisfactory, while the Federal Reserve two governing Tarullo (Daniel Tarullo) and Brainerd (Lael Brainard) also has published a dovish speech, saying the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates should be suspended until confirmation global economic slowdown, China and other international issues of risk does not make the US recovery off course, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates during the year was plunged, gold hit a three-month high of $ 1,190.63 / ounce level.

However, last Friday the US CPI data and previously published data show jobless claims were better than expected, the price of gold fell to $ 1,180 / ounce below. The data also showed that US October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 92.1, expected 89.0, 9 end of the month is 87.2. These data show the dollar rebounded from a seven-week low, the market expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year has thus increased.

From the latest US futures market expectations for the federal funds rate, the Fed rate hike in October may have dropped further to 8% in December to raise interest rates expected to rise slightly to 31.9%.

A trader in Hong Kong, said: 'The current gold trend followed the dollar after data last week, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in December back again.'

MKS trader Sam Laughlin said: 'The key support in the 1170-1175 US dollars / room ounce, below this level will stumble to $ 1,150 / ounce.'

With the Fed's policy meeting on October 27-28 approaching, there is still this week digit FOMC officials will speak on stage, where the spotlight is undoubtedly Tuesday (October 20) the main 席耶伦 (Jannet Yellen) speech In the current Fed officials on the occasion of internal differences is increasing, Yellen's view is also changing? She has said in the September meeting, the Fed could still raise interest rates during the year.

New York Fed President Dudley (William Dudley) days in an interview with Italian media Corrier Economia said, because of concerns about global economic growth, the United States is too early to consider raising interest rates.

Dudley Brookings Institution conference in Washington on the sidelines, 'said the past few months the situation has changed. We really thought it might raise interest rates before the end of 2015, but the financial market turmoil, lackluster global growth, energy prices and macro-prudential imbalance, leading to a slowdown in the process. '

Dudley pointed out, now is still too early to consider raising interest rates, he warned, ignoring the weak global economic growth is only the fact that a 'big mistake.'

Fed rate hike is expected to dominate the gold 'Destiny' bull surge is Joy and sorrow?

Current investors in gold and somewhat mixed, Comex gold long positions in the week of Oct. 13 hit a five-month high, indicating a strong gold market bulls.

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday (October 16) released its weekly report, as of October 13 the week, COMEX gold speculative net long positions increase 32725 hand, to 82546 hand, since mid-May the highest level. With the price of gold rose to nearly four-month high this week, hedge funds and fund managers holdings of gold for the fourth consecutive week.

But on Friday, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings appeared occurring within the first two weeks of outflows, reflecting market sentiment began to change a little.

Ole Hansen Saxo Bank head of commodities research, said: 'At present, the gold in the past few weeks, the biggest threat is a sharp rise in the gold bull bet.'

Citigroup (Citi) said in a report on Monday, gold's recent rally may soon subside. At the same time, if the market does not hold the view the Fed and interest rates, gold prices may fall.

Citigroup noted that recent hawkish rhetoric San Francisco Fed President Williams, the New York Fed President Dudley and Atlanta Fed President 席洛克哈特 had issued, saying there are still likely to raise interest rates this year, but gold has ignored such statements affect the continued strength .

However, the bank stressed that once the market for the Fed to postpone raising interest rates subsided pessimism, which may pose a risk of downside correction for the gold.

CMC Markets market strategist Colin Cieszynski said: 'The biggest factor affecting gold is the US dollar, and the Fed when interest rates, interest rates and how much margin.'

MorrisonOnTheMarkets.com analyst Ken Morrison said: 'The rise in gold prices last week was affected by the weak US dollar, and the Middle East as well as geopolitical issues, but this week, the gold market will be consolidation, and does not exclude the price of gold dropped back to $ 1,160 /. ounce can. Gold must break through a large number of transactions in the case $ 1,190 / oz zone to retest $ 1230 / oz level. '

Adrian Ash BullionVault research director, said, 'the gold market may be about to turn ever appear now Western sentiment remains bearish extremes, which from 2011 to 2012 when the price of gold at the peak time, the gold market is in a bullish contrary.'

However, Barclays Bank (Barclays) technology strategy report released Monday said, given the recent rise in the gold price unexpectedly, into a neutral view on the gold price. At the same time, the macroeconomic environment is expected to boost gold's performance in the fourth quarter of this year.

Barclays analyst Feifei Li pointed out that 'in view of recent weak US data, we now expect the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015, the first time to raise interest rates in March 2016.' In addition, Li believes that 'due to the physical supply and demand side not any improvement is expected after the US interest rate expectations will continue to dominate the gold price. 'Barclays expects the fourth quarter of this year the price of gold $ 1,170 / oz in 2016 at $ 1,215 / ounce.


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