Strategy Weekly non-ferrous metals (aluminum): the sound of voices resume production, aluminum recovery is still time

Updated: April 11, 2016  Views: 11

Important changes:

1. The news of the resumption of production came this week that several manufacturers have indicated that they have aluminum production complex scheme involving an annual capacity of about 300,000 tons. Among them, there is a clear resumption of production time, mostly concentrated in the end of April, is expected 1-3 months after shipment.

2. Alumina prices have remained unchanged this week the mainstream alumina market prices remained stable, there are only rose slightly on Friday.

3. The United States and Europe's central bankers, released this week in the dovish voices, suggesting easing monetary conditions in the short term, or will be able to continue, however, non-ferrous metal price reaction was muted.

4. The Doha meeting soon, the market sentiment led to crude oil rose above normal Friday night, US oil was up more than 5% of crude oil rose Lun aluminum Shanghai aluminum and there was a certain role in promoting.

The week ahead:

On the supply side, there are several vendors this week revealed its plans to resume production there. According to statistics, the resumption of production capacity does not have the majority-owned electricity. Therefore we can say that tidal wave of resumption of production is largely dominated by the local government . overall demand remains stable, the terminal is still demand procurement, trading more active stock traders bargain actively pick-combining supply and demand considerations, we believe that the short-term aluminum will be sideways, prices will continue to 11,800 yuan / ton near the shock.

Operational recommendations:

Investors are advised to wait and see, 11,900 yuan / ton above may be short-term wet storage test empty, Kuaijinkuaichu.

risk point:

1. Terminal, lower inventory levels and consumption dynamics

2. actual enforcement vendors plan to resume production was stronger than expected

3. Exchange rate changes significantly more than expected, the unexpected strength of the dollar thereby affecting pressing Lun aluminum Shanghai aluminum


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Traditional Chinese: 有色金屬策略周報(鋁):復產之聲不絕於耳,鋁價復蘇尚有時日

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