With 7 more after the break yuan GDP voice: To pinpoint the precise formula to stimulate

Updated: October 20, 2015  Views: 49

The first three quarters of this year China's GDP growth rate was 6.9%, which is since the second quarter of 2009, China's economic growth for the first time fell below 7%.

For a long time, 7% seems to have become an important academic expectations for the Chinese economy, to keep 7 percent, the economy would seem promising, below 7 percent, calling for the introduction of sound economic stimulus to another. This time, when GDP fell below 7 After%, but there are more dollars sounds.

Executive Vice Chairman of China International Exchange Center, said Zhang Xiaoqiang, if you look at the work report of the NPC by the government early this year, you know, our main target as many as nine in 1994-95, GDP is just one of them, new jobs, an important indicator of income growth are also a measure of economic health, from the 'package' of data, job creation and other targets have been completed ahead of schedule, to economic growth in the contribution of consumption to improve, they show a better economic development quality.

Compared with the economic growth indicators, and livelihood-related employment, prices, income and other data themselves. National Bureau of Statistics data released today show that in the first three quarters, China's population of 10.66 million new jobs, exceeding the program objectives throughout the year, the consumer price index from January to September rose only 1.4 percent, and household income to maintain a rapid growth, faster than GDP.

Zhang Xiaoqiang believes that the hold employment, income bottom line and enhance the development of quality of the premise, do not deliberately go for about 7% of GDP stare target.

Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao closely watching the International Monetary Fund [microblogging] expectations for global economic growth, he said that this year, IMF has been 4 times lower global economic growth expected from the beginning of the year 3.8%, down from 3.1% in the recent while IMF also lowered the euro zone, especially Germany's economic growth is expected, but China's economic growth is expected to remain 6.8% is expected in early.

In Zhu seems, IMF on global and sub-regional economic growth is expected to adjust, at least convey two messages: First, the global economic slowdown, and even has to cordon economists believe that has a very complex and uncertain external influences on the Chinese economy, and the other is the International Monetary Fund is expected to maintain the Chinese economy, indicating that confidence in the Chinese economy.

Tsinghua University, China and World Economy Research Center Director, David [microblogging] and the team but also the future of China's economy has a higher confidence judgment they give is that China 'can be expected to stabilize economic growth', expected by the end of this year bottoming out in the first half of next year.

Lee David analysts say, because the current Chinese economic downturn, both the spontaneous growth momentum, especially lack of investment, including traditional economic growth is too fast retraction and the new growth point has not yet formed a sufficient capacity. In particular, in January-August , the national fixed asset investment grew 10.9%, a record low in recent years, including real estate development and investment growth fell to 3.5 percent, a serious drag on the growth rate of fixed asset investment. Important industrial industrial production, automobile, cement, thermal power, crude steel, etc. continuous negative growth.

National Bureau of Statistics Research Institute, former director of Pan Fan opinion, the old model of economic growth is not sustainable, but new models and growth has not yet fully formed, so as soon as possible to change a few industries, industrial and land finance excessive dependence. To increase scientific and technological innovation, and actively cultivate new economic growth points, to improve the quality of development.

Traditional support economic growth in the industry downturn, but also gave birth to a new industry development. It is based on such judgments, many economists believe that the recession is only temporary, once bred in the development of related industries together, economy is a good basis to stabilize.

David believes that, by the end of this year to the first half of next year on the basis of China's economy bottoming out, with the real estate sales pick up gradually transfer to the investment side end, and a large number of infrastructure projects have been implemented, the state-owned enterprise reform measures introduced, part of the debt restructuring and other stable measures to gradually increase the force, China's economy is expected by the end of the year to the first half of next year bottoming out, next year China's economy will show a full-year low after the high of the situation.

Tsinghua University professor Wei Jie also agree with this view, he believes that three or four quarters of this year China's economy should be the bottom, starting next year China's economy will have some pulling power: the capacity to international cooperation for the characteristics of export will replace the current downturn The traditional export industry, 'along the way', especially overland export effect will appear, strategic emerging industries investment will make up the real estate sector investment fell space, education spending and other new consumer consumption will be more abundant contribution to the economy.

Many economists have noted that, despite the economic downturn pressure, but the current process of economic growth, there are still many bright spots worthy of attention.

First, economists called on the years of economic restructuring, there have been optimized momentum. According to Tsinghua University, China and World Economy Research Center estimated that China's consumption share of GDP has been rising for 8 years, it has now risen to 45% GDP of around, become an important economic anchor. service share of GDP since 2013 for the first time more than manufacturing, keeping a steady upward trend.

Today released data also show that from January to September, an increase of nearly 40% of online retail sales, high-tech industrial added value growth rate reached 10.4 percent, higher than the above-scale industrial growth rate 4.2 percentage points. This means that China's industry Upgrading accelerating.

Secondly, although the national economy is relatively weak, but it is difficult to cover up some areas and industry contrarian, the momentum of rapid development.

For example, Chongqing industrial cluster development, cultivate strategic emerging industries, expanding Yuxinou Railway steady growth in traffic and a series of major initiatives remarkable first half of 2015 GDP growth rate of 11 percent in Chongqing, export growth rate of 18%, lead the majority of the country.

In terms of the regional economy, Changsha, Wuhan, Chengdu, Hefei and other mainland cities on the one hand to undertake the transfer of industries in coastal areas, on the other hand to accelerate the development of the automotive, electronics, Internet and other emerging industries, Mr Li said the overall economic performance in these areas is very eye-catching, This is a downward adjustment of the Chinese economy in remarkable places.

In addition to the possible impact of short-term policies to stabilize the economy for the better, Mr Li also believes that the world has experience in the middle-income trap across the economy, China's economy also have to maintain the high growth possible.

He explained that 12 already from the middle-income trap across economies successful experience, must have three necessary conditions: a stable government support the development of market economy, highly qualified people, especially highly educated population, open to the developed economies. At present, China has had these conditions, maintaining high growth economy, across the middle-income trap possible. But many economists believe that to maintain the rapid growth of Chinese economy, but also must reform plus Big steady growth accurate regulation.

In fact, the academic world more controversial is that economic growth continued to decline in the face of pressure, and should not be issued a series of policy steady growth. Economists dominant views on this issue should not put too much steady growth policy, on the grounds that the growth rate will decline in the service of economic restructuring, 'a bitter pill.' Only after the decline in growth rate, to be able to eliminate backward production capacity, clear economic 'body' of the toxin, long-term healthy development of the economy.

Professor of Economics at the Central University of Finance Bin open view, urbanization, marketization, globalization and information technology are the main driving force for future economic growth through human consumption potential release of urbanization, through market deregulation, allow more enterprises to invest inaccessible areas in the past, through globalization to accelerate industrial upgrading and transformation, promote institutional change and technological innovation through information technology.

But there are like Daokui such scholars believe that China's economy still needs 'pinpoint' type of precise stimulation of what he sees as 'pinpoint style' stimulus include: to find ways to resolve the entity financing the high cost of major issues, to the local government's economic departments to provide positive and positive incentives to encourage local officials to pain change 'lazy lazy political affairs,' the bad habits, arouse their investment, expansion of investment enthusiasm, and promote state-owned enterprise reform, the introduction of a number of effective reforms as a model case, let the market see to see, tangible dividends of state-owned enterprise reform.

Beijing, October 19 electricity


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