Changjiang Securities: Wait for a strong rebound in stock Budie opportunity this year will be crucial OpeningUpdated: May 22, 2016 Views: 72
I. Market Review: early decline among the top TMT industry led
This week, market differentiation, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.1%, the GEM Dow rose 2.0%, the SSE 50 rose 0.3% for the computer industry, the performance of the first three (3.6%), electronic components (2.7%), non-ferrous metals (2.2% ), relating to the performance front for rare earth permanent magnet index (12.5%), mobile resale index (5.3%), OLED index (5.1%). pre-sales of tmt industry led.
1.1 Market: M & A tightening is expected to be eased, liquidity is expected to remain high need to be amended
Monday by the Commission spokesman said on Friday listed companies qualified support for the Commission's refinancing and mergers and acquisitions, capital markets services in order to effectively play the function of the real economy, the current refinancing and M & A related regulations and policies without any change, early investors on mergers and acquisitions policy tightening is expected to be eased, the market rose slightly on Monday night announced that President Xi Jinping, the central Financial Work leading group held thirteenth meeting, unswervingly push forward the requirements of the supply-side structural reforms, Tuesday market more stable performance, Wednesday, the New York Fed announcement Treasury will carry out small-scale public sale May 24, under the influence, investors began to shrink the Fed's balance sheet concerns raised, the market fell 2.2% intraday, late in the banking and insurance to support the market decline narrowed to 1.3 percent on Thursday, the Fed's April meeting minutes said that if future data showed the US economy improving, the Fed may raise interest rates on the June meeting, the Fed believes the market before June less likely to raise interest rates fought back, the market finished lower slightly on Friday, Chairman of the three branches of the Federal Reserve said the economy was supported by the data, may raise interest rates in June, the market opened lower in early trading, but the intraday rise, It closed up 0.7%.
1.2 position changes: public offering slightly lower positions, absolute return by Opening
Since the fund position estimates mainly related to public fund positions, absolute return need to research, and therefore change our position tracking in two dimensions, the first dimension of the Yangtze strategy team after investors get positions positions investigation summary statistics, weekly frequency sample survey contains a public offering investors, private investors and other types of investors. describe the overall level positions aggregated level digital absolute position data obtained from the survey may not be entirely realistic, but we think the trend data can have some significance the second public offering of stock funds and partial stock fund positions circumstances Yangtze metalworking team after fitting calculated, day of the frequency. Similarly, the relative position data to see trends change more effectively. we believe that the two dimensions of data binding, the investor can describe changes in the position to some extent.
Strategies positions from the Yangtze River, the May 21 week overall position was 49.2%, compared with May 15 when 47.4% the week rose by 1.8%.
The estimates obtained an overall decline this week raised positions, equity and hybrid funds are to lighten up slightly. (According to the Yangtze River Financial Engineering Group estimates estimates this week, the average equity fund positions to lighten up from 82.0% to 81.4% on Friday hybrid stock fund positions to lighten up from 70.6 to 70.2%).
It can be seen this week in the market sideways background, absolute returns were slightly Opening, relative beneficiaries to lighten up.
Second, the market outlook: Economy expected to go flat, whether to tighten monetary policy tightening and the key level
We had proposed the current market environment is the economy and corporate earnings expectations poor little investor liquidity is expected to face a marginal adjustment, and this factor is the nature of the inflection point, the market will have a greater impact. Recent series of economic, changes in financial data validate our judgment. we think the follow-up of the financial system need to continue to focus on debt deleveraging and credit market risk, the supply pressure of the stock market.
Looking to the future, if economic data continues to weaken, then whether or not to tighten monetary policy, the proactive fiscal policy is overweight, it is worth attention.
2.1 strong stocks underperformed the beginning, what it means?
Week later this week, a strong pre-plate, such as lithium plate, rare earth plate, white plates in the index compared with the previous week under strong background is not high, stagflation, and even appeared index fell more than a phenomenon. Prior to April in late to early May, during the index sideways shock, lithium plate, rare earth plate, white plates hit a new high early strength of the plate can not be a new high, the beginning of what index underperformed mean? we take a closer look from a historical re-set.
In 2008, for example, from January 2008 to July 2008, the Shanghai index trend, falling by 47%, animal husbandry and fishery decline over the same period was only 21%, compared with the Shanghai index relative returns as high as 26%, ranking the first industry index but from 2008 to July 28, 2008 October 28, animal husbandry and fishery index was significantly Budie, interval drop of up to 50.5% over the same period the Shanghai index fell 38.2%, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index ranked next to last in the industry subsequently, the market rebounded sharply ushered in October 2008 to August 2009's.
In May 2012 - the beginning of November the market trend is down, the performance is more defensive food and beverage, the industry before the rise among the top decliners in the November 5, 2012 to December 4, 2012, the market finally saw the big end before fall, the Shanghai index fell 6.7%, while food and beverage drop of up to 21.54% in the SW one industry performance last. then the market to see the bottom in December 2012.
There are now strong signs of stocks underperformed the broader market, especially with the development of the space industry and the recent boom of new high energy automotive industry chain underperformed the index, which requires investors to pay close attention. Historically, the beginning of a strong stock Budie, will drive the market down. Once completed strong stock Budie, behind short kinetic energy is relatively limited, the market will rebound with a microscopic basis.
After the strong stock Budie, the market will rebound with a microscopic basis, mainly from the market at the weak, the strong performance of pre-strong stocks from investors hold together for warmth, especially relative beneficiaries of the funds are highly concentrated in a small number of plates, while institutional sector due to strong stock transfer positions resulting in lower positions remaining plates. this results in a greater potential strong selling pressure plate, and the potential sell-off the remaining plates is small, which means that only strong plate to have a larger short kinetic energy, the remaining plates short kinetic energy is relatively low. Thus, a strong stock Budie, means that the market last short kinetic energy release. Once completed Budie strong stock, subsequent short kinetic energy is relatively limited, the market will rebound with a micro basis.
2.2 macro, we need the Fed to raise interest rates fall uncertainty, the recent focus on employment indicators
Recently, the Fed rebooted market rate hike in June the probability of a correct understanding of, after the market for the Fed rate hike in June is less than 20% probability judgment. Minutes of the Fed's April meeting said that if future data showed the US economy continues to improve, the Fed may in the meeting in June rate hike. Thereafter, the President of all three branches of the Federal Reserve speech suggests that if economic data will support the rate hike in June.
From the economic data, the US economy is still in a moderate recovery trend. Michigan consumer confidence index in May was 95.8, significantly increasing the level of 89.0 in April compared with 6.8 months after the end of a continuous downward trend. Non-April new agricultural employment was 16.0 million, 21.5 million lower than the previous value, but the Fed is more concerned about the growth in hourly better, April salary growth of 0.31%, an increase of 2.40%. March core PCE rose 1.56 percent, personal consumption expenditures increased by 3.5%.
Current investors need to pay close attention to the US non-farm payrolls in May, June first Friday. The quality of non-farm payrolls will directly affect investors' rate hike in June the probability of judgment, and does not necessarily need to wait until June Fed meeting resolution, which will be the Fed to raise interest rates uncertainty floor window. after the elimination of uncertainty, a-share market will rebound with a macroscopic basis.
The current market does not have the microscopic and macroscopic basis based rebound. Follow-up to wait for complete micro foundation of a strong stock Budie bring rebound, waiting for the Fed to raise interest rates fall macro uncertainty foundation to bring bounce. We tend to investors in the current still need patience to wait for a better offensive opportunities, the need to control the current position. we believe that the a shares will not continue to go flat, and we believe that position to grasp market timing is still one of the key factors that determine the relative benefits and decided revenue (another key factor is the sector allocation), we also believe.
Industry configuration: Recommended tap structural opportunities from the three main lines, first to continue to adhere to the 'economy is the best defense,' the economy first, second valuation, key configuration boom industry, but with its deviation from the mean valuation adjustment weights. key configuration appliances, media, feed, and environmental benefit of PPP building company (related companies: Bosch Branch (300 422, Weier Li (300190, Beijing blue Technology (000711, Su cross section (300,284, Hongrun construction (002,062, Hud ecology ( 300197), the sub-sector concerned to benefit from the liberalization of the highest national price control blood products industry (related companies: Boya bio (300,294 Hualan (002007, Tiantan biological products (600161) Secondly, concern lower valuation and performance. . robust growth sector focus so far in March, industry profit forecast has been raised, recommended attention: medical services, computer equipment, automobile, engineering and environmental services, pharmaceutical business and other industries in addition, focus on high dividend company 'steady stable to happiness, 'the last two years focus on dividend yield of more than 3%, valued at less than 30 times, while a quarter faster than 10% of the company's portfolio.
Topic Configuration: military research institutes restructuring the army and civil progress speed military theme (Aerospace Electrical (600,151, Edith King (300 474, Highland letter (300,065, Weihai Kwong Tai (002,111, CITIC Offshore Helicopter (000099, etc.), construction investment ushered in the peak of urban rail topic (related companies: SU cross section, Ding Han technology (300011, Yunda Science and technology (300,440, Hongrun construction, the new building of shares (002,480, Shentong Metro (600 834, etc.), by the El Nino effect this year, National flood season in advance, typhoon season, the upcoming rainy season, flood control and waterlogging recommended topics (related companies: Huakong SEG (000068 Longquan shares (002,671, Oriental Yuhong (002,271, etc.), to benefit from the policy gradually clear, social capital demand for quality investment projects in the risk-free rate of return downside when PPP topic (related companies: Bosch Branch, Beijing blue technology, Hud ecology, etc.), state-owned enterprise reform theme (China Chengtong system, aerospace system, chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Lansheng shares (600826, Tiantan biological Products, etc.), to benefit from the State department instructed the innovation Center Shanghai Branch topic (related companies: Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (600895, Lujiazui (600663, Fudan Fuhua (600 624), the Internet lottery theme (Hong Bo shares (002,229).
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