[Pocket] precious metal gold strong return prospects thorns

Updated: October 20, 2015  Views: 39

Market Review:

Last week (October 12 --16 International Day cumulative spot gold closed up $ 21, or 1.82 percent, to close at $ 1,176.6 / ounce, the highest on the probe 1190.7 US dollars / ounce, the lowest dropping $ 1,151.16 / oz this year as the market for the Fed. rate hike expectations weaken further, a weaker dollar, at an increased hedging demand, gold prices rise, once close to $ 1 190 / highest level in nearly four months ounce.

Released last week, some US and Chinese economic data, poor performance of the stock market weakness, but Fed officials on whether to raise interest rates this year, the debate has become more open, the gold market sentiment has shown a significant safe-haven buying.

Gold station since May 18 this year, once again the key to the level of the 200-day moving average, while the strong trend last week the price of gold is not contrary to our expectation, the performance of the gold market outlook, we believe that will continue to depend on the global economy and stock market performance. gold performance if short-lived, the market is still different views of the beholder, the wise see wisdom.

Fundamental analysis:

On Tuesday (October 13), Germany October ZEW economic sentiment index fell less than the market expected, the euro zone in October ZEW economic sentiment index and the market is not expected, the global stock index plunged, especially the euro zone, Germany is worrying data, for there have been signs of stabilization in the euro-zone economy fiercely poured cold water.

US September retail sales growth of 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, the previous value of 0.2% revised to 0.0%, in September retail sales (excluding cars and petrol) MoM 0.0%, expected 0.3%, the previous value of 0.3% revised to 0.2 % US September PPI MoM -0.5%, down to January largest expected -0.2%, previous value of 0.0%. September PPI -1.1% YoY, -0.8% expected, -0.8% the previous value.

China National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Wednesday, September consumer price (CPI) rose 1.6%, lower than the 1.8 percent median forecast of August 2 percent year on year increase and obtained a Bloomberg survey. September industrial producer prices (PPI) fell 5.9%, a continuous decline in time was extended to 43 months.


Continuous upside to gold in the 200-day moving average last week after the tail section appeared to adjust, the reason may be able to find US September core inflation signs of improvement, but only such a data leads to somewhat adjust the price of gold too far-fetched, a strong gold price on Wednesday broke the 200-day moving average, there is still a technical adjustment is reasonable phenomenon.

Since last week's economic data was disappointing, apparent safe-haven buying of gold, but this force can maintain sustained buying, still need to observe a period of time.

Technically, gold broke its 200-day moving average of far-reaching significance of this week, if the price of gold to hold $ 1,160, round up the trend will continue.

Close attention to the $ 1,160 of gains and losses on the suggested actions, if effective below, prices need to be amended, but that does not mean the end of the trend, as adjusted to what position to clearly establish the superiority short, the fundamentals still need evidence.

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