Liaoning pains and hope: the employment growth rate of decline diminished

Updated: October 20, 2015  Views: 42

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Although the public has a lot of talk of Liaoning economy, concerns those who have, worry those who have, there is disappointment, or even bad-mouthing those who have it, but in the eyes of Liang Qidong Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, the economic situation is far from Liaoning so bad.

'Take Shenyang, every weekend to large, there will be 50 million people out of leisure and tourism resort. One Saturday morning to Sunday evening, the port city of Shenyang each very serious traffic jam in the first half of this year, Liaoning tourism revenue growth more than 12%, more cultural and sports entertainment consumption growth of 15.8%, which can say the economic situation bad? 'said Liang Qidong.

Growth rate of decline, employment diminished

According to the national economic and social development in Liaoning Province Gazette, 2005, Liaoning Province, the per capita income of urban residents was 9,108 yuan, farmers per capita income of 3,690 yuan. By 2014, the province's per capita income of urban residents rose to 29,082 yuan, rural per capita income 11,101 yuan, respectively, are more than three times 10 years ago.

'Like people eager to travel phenomenon a decade ago was unthinkable.' Liang Qidong said at the time, Shenyang often the case laid-off workers blocked the government, blocking the road, because they want to live, to employment.

Liaoning Province, a lot of economic data in the first half in the bottom of the country, but per capita income and total social retail sales growth data is not ugly first half of the gross regional product grew Liaoning 2.6%, well below the annual growth of 6 percent set at the beginning of target, can be called 'cliff-style decline.' But in the first half of urban residents per capita disposable income of 15,624 yuan, an increase of 7.3%, rural residents per capita disposable income of 7,123 yuan, an increase of 7.8%.

Meanwhile, in the first half, total retail sales of social consumer goods in Liaoning Province realized 609.1 billion yuan, an increase of 7.5% over the previous year, the growth rate of the first quarter increased 0.6 percentage points.

Liang Qidong raised a very worthy of study economic phenomenon: 'the growth rate of decline, employment diminished' In the last year of the 'most difficult job season,' 1322 National solves million jobs, Liaoning did last year, 'Paul August' is resolved. 102 million jobs in the first half of this year, more in the economic growth rate of 2.6% of the 43.4 million jobs to solve the case. Liaoning registered unemployment rate is now 3.28%, is one of the lowest in the province.

In the streets of Shenyang, it is difficult to feel the impact of the economic downturn on people's lives in Shenyang City Yangtze River Street, a small apple mobile phone shop, mobile phone repair reporters more than one hour, the store sold three Apple phone.

Liang Qidong said, the last ten years, a great achievement is to solve the income and employment of the population. This is the prerequisite for social stability, but also the basis for the economic future for the better.

'High' and 'squeeze water'

From rapid growth to a cliff-style decline in economic growth in Liaoning changes according to Liang Qidong words, all of economic theory and the most advanced data model can not explain.

'Only one possible, data have problems.' Liang Qidong told << First Financial Daily >>, past data, up to growth, but also growth in the chain. The previous data is too high. The so-called too high, that there is water .

Liang Qidong last year and this year some of the data to compare the first quarter of last year, the province's above-scale industrial added value increased by 8.4% over the previous year, a decrease of 5.9% in the first quarter, down 14.5 percent year on year, 12.3 percentage points lower than the national, Last year, a quarter of the province's fixed asset investment rose 17.2 percent, fixed asset investment in the first quarter of this year fell 18.5 percent, lower than the national 32 percent last year, a quarter of the public budget revenue growth of 9.3% in the first quarter of negative growth of 30.4%, lower than the national 32.8 percentage points.

Liang Qidong pointed out that economic data fell, squeeze the water problem indeed.

Some county revenue is not much, but more than 10 times the data packets, and some false figure is higher than the 20% to 30% or even higher. Individual regions through zero premium, many financial idling land, close overdone inflated revenue tax, etc. Solid cast, regulations on industrial enterprises data are also false problem. Tax-related decline in the economy, tax and squeeze water-related decline.

Liaoning new leadership determined to 'squeeze the water.' In late July this year, Liaoning Province << Provincial Standing Committee report on the first half of 2015 economic and social development in Liaoning Province and the organization of work in the second half when he pointed >> : To Liaoning current depth analysis of the economic indicators to accurately distinguish decline due to the impact caused by water and squeeze decline due to the economic downturn caused by the impact and accurately determine the current economic situation.

The crux: 'Three recession'

Liaoning sharply on economic growth, Liang Qidong concluded that long supply strong and growing too fast, cover up the contradictions many structural and institutional Now, the water drained, who is swimming naked, crystal clear. ' we are swimming naked. '

Liang Qidong think, Liaoning reasons include the Northeast 'swimming naked' is 'three recessions.'

One resource decline. Resource-exhausted cities northeast third of the country's total coal lighting, the lighting of oil, iron ore lighting, the lighting of the forest, the city dried up. For example, US Appalachians Population migration area, the city dried up and left. But the Northeast so many cities, do not have to abandon? Which cities are willing to absorb the transfer of the population?

Second, the structural decline. From the industrial structure, the Northeast's largest problem is the high proportion of heavy industry, long time, 'heavy lightly', is the emphasis on heavy industry, light industry contempt Employment elasticity of heavy industry is relatively low, the current excess capacity and severe .

Take Liaoning Province, the heavy chemical industry and light industry proportion is 80:20, Fushun is 93:7.

In the economic revitalization of northeast Decade (2003-2013), the country needs to develop heavy and chemical industries, while equipment manufacturing, energy, iron and steel industry is precisely these front-end advantages northeast coupled with the country in response to the 2008 financial crisis, We began to engage in large-scale capital construction, iron and steel, petrochemical, coal, shipbuilding and other industries are on the project. At present, the serious overcapacity, plus the last two years, the international prices of staple products, even worse.

'During 2000 to 2010, international commodity experienced a super-cycle, iron ore prices increased several times. Liaoning as a heavy chemical industry as the leading province, very sensitive to commodity prices.' Liang Qidong said.

Inefficient investment also includes Liaoning, including the northeast region into an important factor in the fall.

Investment in the Northeast region, the resources invested in traditional industries, it is difficult to bring high-growth economy, such as Jilin, its highest rate of investment in the three northeastern provinces of, but one hundred million yuan in fixed assets investment in Jilin, an increase of GDP equivalent to Guangdong, Zhejiang, one-third of the increased revenue is equivalent to one fifth of Guangdong, Zhejiang quarter, one-third increase in the number of jobs equivalent to Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu one fifth.

Now, Liaoning is faced with investment dilemma. Data show that a large investment project in Liaoning dropped by about 50 percent the same period last year invested 200 billion yuan this year, only more than 1000 million, reflecting the large projects in municipalities are fewer problems.

This over-driven by investment in Liaoning great economic impact on the past, stimulation of investment to GDP reached 70%, the peak period reached 100%.

'Uncomfortable' and 'not uncomfortable'

During the interview, Liang Qidong speak several 'uncomfortable' and 'not uncomfortable.' This is actually a vivid reflection of the pains and hopes of Liaoning.

The first is industrial uncomfortable, service is not bad. Northeast of service is also good, for example, the country's industrial growth in the first half, Liaoning bottom, but total retail sales increased by 7.5%.

Followed by the traditional industries uncomfortable, emerging industries not uncomfortable. Traditional industries are the petrochemical, metallurgy, shipbuilding and other industries, they are due to overcapacity and losses. But Liaoning Internet economy in the first half rose 38%. Like Shenyang New Song Robot (300024.SZ) marketing 20 countries and regions, order full, we need to line up. Now this is a new industry in the Northeast accounted for little traditional industries accounted for more than 90%, less than 10 percent of new industries.

Liaoning economy highlights what? 'There are five highlights,' said Liang Qidong, services, emerging industries, light industry, the private economy and small and micro enterprises, economic livelihood.

For economic downward pressure, Liaoning is being opened for the economic revitalization of the 'prescription.'

Liaoning Provincial People's Congress meeting the foregoing requirements, to correctly understand and handle the relationship between government and the market to fully play a decisive role in the allocation of resources in the market must be faced up to, abandon the way of thinking in economic work in the presence of a planned economy and behavior , abandoned the planned economy in the past used some traditional practices, through investment, approval, policy tilt in various ways, directly or indirectly play a leading role in the allocation of resources. The Government should not control do not control, to focus on service on business, on maintaining a fair market order. To make an inventory of state-owned capital, the competitive field of state-owned enterprises should vigorously promote the reform of mixed ownership. Get Top News, Latest News and Current News from Latest Current News: U.S., China, World, Entertainment, Health, Finance, Business, echnology, Travel, Politics, Sports.