GDP growth is "broken 7" real estate investment growth continued to slow in the third quarter

Updated: October 20, 2015  Views: 36

Third quarter GDP up by 6.9%

National Bureau of Statistics data released yesterday show that three quarters of GDP (gross domestic product) grew by 6.9%, which is six years, GDP growth for the first time 'broken 7.' NBS spokesman Sheng Yun said that although the three quarter GDP growth fell slightly, but is still around 7%, the national economy is in a reasonable range, steady progress, steady trend has not changed for the better.

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GDP growth in the third quarter, 'broken 7'

According to the National Bureau of Statistics preliminary accounting, in the first three quarters of GDP of 48.7774 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 6.9%. This is the new standard for China after the implementation of quarterly GDP accounting, the National Bureau of Statistics released the first GDP. Specifically Look, in the first quarter year on year increase of 7% in the second quarter GDP to continue to maintain this growth rate, an increase in the third quarter narrowed 0.1 percentage points to 6.9%.

Judging from a single quarter of the situation, since the second quarter of 2012, China's GDP growth fell below 8 percent for the first time after the data continues to be maintained at more than 7%. Third quarter GDP grew 6.9 percent, becoming the lowest since the second quarter of 2009 After growth, also in the first quarter 2009 GDP growth once again return to below 7%, the highest six-year low since NBS historical data show that in 2009 a quarter GDP growth was revised to 6.2 percent eventually.

Sub-industries, the primary industry in the first three quarters of 3.9195 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8%, the secondary industry was 19.7799 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, the tertiary industry was 25.0779 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4%. Tertiary Industry the added value of a share of GDP was 51.4 percent, up 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year, indicating continued to optimize the industrial structure.

Sheng Yun stressed at the press conference, although the economic growth rate dropped slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed the overall smooth, steady and stable feed situation has not changed for the better.

Sheng to transport that, in the first three quarters, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP reached 51.4% higher than the 49.5% in the first half of nearly two percentage points, the industrial structure from the original industry leading services-led transition to trend more clearly. In addition, the transformation and upgrading of momentum is also very good, the first three quarters, online retail sales increase of up to about 36%, new products such as new energy vehicles are doubling growth in the industrial structure, the first three quarters, the high-tech industry added value growth rate still reached 10.4%, higher than the above-scale industrial growth rate 4.2 percentage points, which are described, upgrading of industrial structure in China accelerated.

'The first three quarters of new jobs exceeded planned targets throughout the year, in the first three quarters of consumer prices rose 1.4 percent, household income to maintain a rapid growth, faster than GDP, these indicators illustrate the overall operation of the current Chinese economy is still relatively smooth. 'Sheng Yun said.

Real estate investment growth continued to slow

Data also show that the first three quarters, real estate investment growth continued to slow. Specifically, the national real estate development and investment 7.0535 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.6% nominal growth rate down 0.9 percentage points over the previous August, the growth rate over the first half down 2 percentage points.

Historical data show that 2013 full-year, real estate investment growth year on year increase of 19.8%, followed by real estate investment cumulative growth continued downward in the first half real estate investment growth also to new lows while dragged down real estate investment in the first three quarter, China's fixed asset investment growth continued to slow. Specifically, in the first three quarters, investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) 39.4531 trillion yuan, up by name

Meaning an increase of 10.3%, the growth rate down 1.1 percentage points over the first half.

Although the real estate investment growth has not improved, but real estate sales point of view, the first three quarters of the national real estate sales area of 829.08 million square meters, an increase of 7.5%, accelerating 3.6 percentage points over the first half, the national real estate sales 5.6745 trillion yuan over the same period , an increase of 15.3%.

In addition, the integration of urban and rural household survey based on the first three quarters of residents per capita disposable income of 16,367 yuan, up 9.2% nominal growth after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 7.7%, up 0.1 percentage points over the first half. The per capita disposable income grew faster than GDP growth rate.

□ doubts

1 Why is slower than 7%?

Why the third quarter GDP growth hit a 6-year low? In this regard, Sheng Yun said factors and domestic level factors superposition international level, increasing the downward pressure on the economy in the third quarter, according to Sheng Yun introduced at the international level, After the third quarter, the world economic recovery is less than expected, the US rate hike is expected to further intensify, resulting in world commodity prices, stock market, currency turmoil sharply, further depreciation of currencies in many countries, but also increased pressure on China's exports, and From the domestic point of view, is currently still in a critical stage of the restructuring, the traditional industry to the production, iron and steel, cement, building materials and these traditional growth industries with excess capacity, have dropped,

In addition, pre-faster growth, such as cars, mobile phones in these industries, the market capacity has entered a period of adjustment.

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank [microblogging] pointed out that the slowdown in industrial production, real estate and manufacturing investment growth decline is the main reason for the current decline in economic growth. Tertiary industry's contribution to GDP continues to improve, has become The main strength of stable economic growth.

In lianping opinion, the current real estate market rebound has not yet conducted to develop end, real estate investment can pick up is not yet known to what extent, it will also affect the future growth of fixed asset investment in the lack of demand, to capacity pressures and producer prices bring industrial deflationary impact of three index (PPI) continued negative growth, the industrial growth in corporate profits decline, lack of willingness to invest in manufacturing business, with capital market volatility, after June, securities, insurance, trust and other financial institutions has been greatly affected market transactions cooling trend in the third quarter financial sector role in promoting economic growth weakened, which makes the presence of downward pressure on the economy.

Lian Ping also pointed out that, although the downward pressure on the economy, but the role of the current contribution of consumption to economic growth enhancement, services good momentum of development in these positive factors, the trend of the economy in the fourth quarter is expected to moderate throughout the year to achieve around 7% economic growth, the basic completion of the annual growth target.

2 growth 'broken 7' would become the norm?

Sheng Yun said, China's economy run by the downward pressure, supporting force, there is a new dynamic three forces dominate. We are at a critical stage due to the restructuring of traditional industries relatively large proportion of total adjusted when feeling to the downward pressure is still relatively large, but in time, with the growth of new power and potential to continue to play, continue to promote China's reform, accelerate the pace of innovation, supporting force and new

Power intertwined, it will hedge downward pressure, so the Chinese economy will continue to maintain steady and rapid growth, maintaining the rapid growth, which is the fourth quarter, including a period in the future most likely running posture.

3 accounting reform affect the geometry of the statistics?

Sheng Yun believes that because GDP accounting must maintain comparable caliber, although some changes in the underlying data on the system level, the method level, will be used in some changes in the aggregate, but the same period last year used to calculate the rate of year did the same a few adjustments, therefore, the use of these basic data accounting of each quarter's GDP, although the absolute amount of change, but little change in speed after using quarterly accounting will help produce high-quality GDP chain data, more sensitive to reflect short-term changes in the macroeconomic operation.

4 how future economic trends?

Turning to the future operating trends in the economy, the Sheng Yun said that both the fourth quarter of this year or next year, China's economy will continue to maintain stable operation of the overall situation.

Sheng Yun analysis pointed out that China's industrialization and urbanization compared to the current world average level of developed countries in particular, there is still a lot of space, new urbanization and industrialization of new technologies with the new will create a new growth engine, economic fundamentals and stable operation has not changed. In addition, the central and western regions still have the advantage, but also appeared in the consumption structure upgrading, continue to increase the demand for education, tourism, health, health care, China's consumption potential is still huge, three level constitutes the Chinese economy and stable operation of the supporting force.

□ Hot responses

Did not join the TPP does not affect short-term economic

Recently China did not join TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement) caused concern. On the conference, a reporter citing agency data, said China did not join the TPP, which could make China's annual economic growth by 0.5 percentage points.

This statement, Sheng Yun at the press conference for clarification. Sheng Yun said that 12 countries involved in TPP total economic output accounted for nearly 40% of the world, if we really implement the agreement in accordance with this, it will have nearly twenty thousand products to implement zero tariffs on China's foreign trade has some pressure, it has some impact on the economy, but the short-term impact is not great.

Sheng Yun analysis pointed out, TPP from the initial intention to sign the final adoption and implementation as well as a process, in addition, there are a number of measures to deal with this, not only will accelerate the negotiations on bilateral free trade, but also accelerate the 'along the way' accelerate the construction of a free trade zone, which to some extent, be able to hedge some impact in Sheng Yun opinion, China should take the opportunity to increase domestic adjustment of industrial upgrading, change from passive to active.

□ news

First three quarters of the national fiscal revenue increased 7.6%

Jinghua Times [microblogging] (Reporter Zhao) Ministry of Finance yesterday released the September 2015 revenue and expenditure in the first three quarters of this year, China's fiscal revenue grew 7.6%.

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