Inventory insurance firms China Life invested bull market slightly better performanceUpdated: October 19, 2015 Views: 55
A bull market in the current round, country life slightly better performance, because it allows a higher price difference income, and the end of the remaining positions is not very high, performance is slightly less safe, how much revenue did not materialize, the remaining positions burden not small
□ Xugao Lin / text
A boom and a slump leverage cow bears a strong level, it has been basically settled. But this round of roller coaster market left investors, leaving the financial industry as well as finance and foreign thought history is just beginning. As an important institutional investors First, of course, the performance of venture capital is worth thinking about summary view of available information, this paper analyzes focus on A-share listed China Life, Ping An, CPIC and Xinhua four insurance companies.
Market segmentation resolve
2014 start of this rally, while not the year of the '5.19' market, as there is a recognized market launch date, but generally concerned should be launched in July 2014. Follow-up of the stock market development is probably about half a stage.
Positions before the start of the bull market situation 1.
Because of China's stock market is already a multi-level, so the volatility index may be quite different gap, as an important reference index author lists the representative index in Table 1.
Insurance companies, Table 2 shows that a total of four stocks and funds (February 2014 according to China Insurance Regulatory Commission << << notify >> Accessories category assets on strengthening and improving the regulatory use of insurance funds can be invested proportion of species >> classification, bond funds are fixed-income assets, equity funds belong to equity assets, therefore, this paper notes each company earnings column Fund under the equity assets of all as the stock funds. But in reality, probably there are exceptions, such as CPIC 'Business Review and Analysis' section when you put a bond fund portfolio of listed and money market funds listed under 'equity investment category,' AIA 2014 report notes disclosures under 'equity instrument investment' account is listed with ' Bond Investment Fund ', set out the course, we will deduct otherwise be regarded as equity funds) positions by the end of 2013 is 338.767 billion yuan, 297.711 billion yuan in 2014, the market value has shrunk 12.12%, exceeding the index fell over the same period, an estimated net lighten up 20 billion yuan or so, seemed more cautious, or pessimistic, it seems there is no feeling that the bull market atmosphere. Of course, this may also explain the bull market come as a surprise, is unexpected, and may even be in the wrong time to come. Among the four, the largest reduction in China Life, Ping An fell less than the market value of the index.
2. The first wave of the bull market position changes
After the bull market started in the third quarter actually tepid, then set off the first wave of vitality and interest rate cuts in November, driven by the end of 2014 the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index more than 3,200 points from the increase has been more than 50% from the historical comparison has been recovery highs approaching 2009, so very large differences between long and short, followed ushered in a sideways for two months or so. Accordingly, the second half of 2014 can be called the first wave of the bull market. Precisely, we can By 2014 the annual report to observe the performance of insurance firms.
Table 3 shows the four total market capitalization rose by 54.9%, and the index is very close, but there is a huge difference between the various, mainly for the first half of China Life shares to lighten up somewhat in the second half of the position grow significantly above the market value of the stock, 74%, obviously there is a net jiacang Xinhua Opening a greater intensity, resulting in increase of the stock market capitalization of nearly 85 percent, Ping may not have much net Opening, CPIC is obviously significantly lighten up, three quarterly 2014 CPIC (CPIC is four Home insurance firms only disclose quarterly in various types of investment instruments company) showed total stock fund positions increased to 500 billion yuan (20 billion yuan deducted from the published data, and 70.22 billion yuan in debt-based goods group) Description basically no net lighten up, but in the fourth quarter rose 50 percent in the index of the market capitalization of the worse cases, indicating greater efforts to lighten up, especially to lighten up the fund more than 50%. Of course, in the case of the overall lighten up, CPIC trading account The stock position instead of rise.
Can be seen in the first wave of the bull market, China Life, Xinhua belong substantial Opening who CPIC is a pocket for security person, peace who generally fixed positions.
3. In 2015, the performance of the first half of madness
Early 2015, the stock market index into the consolidation, and later in the central bank [microblogging] by the end of February, early May announced under intensive push interest rates drop quasi continuous upside, the GEM is soaring like hysteria, the darling of the whole first half, Shanghai City rose more than 30%, the GEM index rose nearly doubled continuous insurance funds of course, is also doing well. Table 4 shows, the market value of the four insurance firms grew 45 percent, and the index is roughly flat. Among them, the Xinhua again come out on top , followed by the second half of 2014 has been significantly lighten the CPIC backhand. 2014 basically holding up the peace of this have to lighten up, the index rose less than the market value. The market value of country life almost simultaneously with the index rise in net position adjustment is unlikely.
Bull Investment ledger
In the bull market rally in two, four insurance firms you Changba me play, but the overall result?
1. Direct investment performance of stocks
Insurance companies invest in stocks divided into direct investments in stocks and stock funds through indirect investment in two ways. Since the majority of the company's earnings report did not specify whether the data contained fund bond funds and money market funds, for the pure sake, let's direct investment stock which performed.
Table 5 shows that the current round of the bull market period (July 2014 --2015 June 2005), the four A-share stock position Total Basic insurance firms doubled, and the aforementioned CSI 300, the Shanghai Composite Index and GEM index over the same period rose very close, but each rose a huge difference. Xinhua topped the list with more than double, peace, and China Life are the basic double CPIC grew 30 percent (plus stock funds total increase of nearly 60%.) Of course, the benefits of position changes but also add to lighten up the opportunity. These ultimately reflected in the investment rate of return.
2. The investment yield performance
Although strictly speaking, yields among insurers is not a direct comparison, but not simply to yield low Heroes, however, interest in the assets in the insurance portfolio is mainly responsible for the pursuit of function relative yields, and this is one time point and the time point earnings short-term bull market highly fit, roughly compare or very telling.
Can be seen from Table 6, in terms of disclosure of investment yield, in addition to net / gross investment rate of return, each may voluntarily choose to disclose a number of indicators, the net growth rate of its consolidated income of China Life and CPIC roughly correspond, deduct joint ventures, associates ROI is a very unique country life indicator because the country life in the calculation of investment assets excludes unusual long-term equity investments.
To observe the stock market investment income, we need to focus on the gap between total revenue and net income, which is reflected in the stock market have realized yield spread index, but also concerned about the sale of comprehensive income ratio can reveal the subjects of floating surplus.
Table 6 data shows that if the impact of the bond market ignored the floating profit and loss, at the end of June 2014 before the start of the stock market, China Life has more floating surplus, CPIC also have some. This explains why the country life in the bull market started already significantly lighten up, because the complete reduction of its warehouse is also a lot of floating profit.
By the end of 2014 on the occasion of the end of the first wave of the bull market, China Life Since much cash floating surplus, net Opening for the position, so the difference between total / net rate of only 0.7, while the floating profit was up 3.1 percentage points, a larger proportion of cash CPIC realized gains 0.8 point difference, retained fuying 2.7 points, positions Xinhua achieve post earnings jumped 0.6 points, retained floating profit was not disclosed but is estimated sharpest, peace is actually lower than the net total return rate, indicating Spread income lost impairment loss, this is because when the bull market started safely up 8.79% of the stock position has forced more than 7 billion yuan impairment, and second, because accounting standards on available for sale equity instruments impairment loss shall so that at the end of the stock market's rally can not be offset by the provision for losses, and peace without separate disclosure of comprehensive income ratio of insurance portfolio, the real effect of rising stock markets outside of profits and losses can not fully understand the rules by which also trans up instructions, peace in the first wave of the bull market in the second half of 2014, not in holding some positions Zuojiao, but waiting for some sort of relief.
In the second wave of the bull market in the first half of 2015, the performance was undoubtedly the most eye-catching of the NCI, the end of the first quarter has been achieved total return of 9.9%, if the rate of 5% of net income estimates, the stock market post gains put the entire investment yields pushed up 5 percentage points to the end of June, Xinhua further build on this, to raise the yield to 5.7% difference! Other companies operating direction is similar, substantial cash floating surplus mainstream.
China Life difference yields as high as 4.7%, slightly lower than the proportion of investment in the stock market, Xinhua, therefore, the stock market investment rate of return of the two companies should be matched. At end-June, China Life has been floating surplus remaining small, only 1.5 % CPIC since the fourth quarter of 2014, efforts have been made larger cash earnings, so the difference in the second wave of the bull market yields only 1.7 points and 1.4 points at the same time retained the floating surplus. Peace is the first means of bull Second wave hit the turnaround, cash yield of 2.6 point difference, the stock market because of its position at the end of 2014 the total portfolio has reached 12.33%, which projected its stock market can be secured yields less than other brothers, as retained floating profit is not disclosed.
The above-mentioned four companies track can be visually displayed using a map. We see that the second half of 2014, in addition to CPIC Blair, the three only a slight increase, but in 2015 began a quarterly, Xinhua will first force, to At end-June, we are releasing floating surplus, so that the yield raised to a new level.
Integrated Performance Index distinguish compete
First, to declare that the article just want to do empirical research to investigate various insurance companies operating in a round of investment in the stock market situation, in order to enrich theoretical understanding. Unintentional thus derived from the evaluation of the company's investment capacity or generate stock sale of tendentious opinion article about the company also wanted to be anonymous, but taking into account the references are public data, the reader can easily find specific companies, so it is the real-name research, in order to avoid the suspicion trick. But in any case, under the He said analyzing the sake of argument, and this article can not guarantee system integrity or authenticity of the publicly available data, so the reader can not judge this level of investment related companies, if the sale of shares pursuant to compensate earn nothing to do with this article.
1. China Life shares
The second half of 2014, after the July and November interest rates rose, trader switched to country life bull mode: Opening net position at a higher point so that when in 2014 when the stock market rose to close, the country life. positions rose 74 percent, and there are about 40% of stock market exposure to floating surplus Into 2015, the country life again tends to be cautious, floating surplus liquidity began to increase, retained floating profit dropped 1.5 percentage points.
China Life to lighten up the first half of 2015 the market share between weaker and perhaps there is a causal relationship, but they alone can not determine who the existing data is a chicken who is eggs. As the benefit of hindsight, we see that in June 2015 the end of the bull market When the stock market investment in China Life's record highs, it seems a little fly in the ointment. Although China Life is profitable to lighten up when the bull market started, the bull float vertex China Life retained earnings have been small, but we should be synchronized with the trend for the country life Point Like it? be kind, then point like it.
When the start of the bull market, Xinhua and China Life, are stock fund positions in 5% or less, it may well avoid the stock market downturn dragged down, but after the bull market started, it also appeared with country life as a big strategic shift in The first wave of the second half of 2014, Xinhua stock market jumped 85 percent, but there is almost no end to lighten up, to make the difference in yield in 2014 was 0.6 percent, although it did not disclose comprehensive income rate, but retained fuying It should be great.
The first half of 2015, Xinhua strategic change again: the only buy not sell in large quantities into the first quarter began a large number of cash floating surplus in the second quarter continued to be honored, but at the same time the end of June 2015, its stock market continued large positions. rose nearly 74%, significantly more than the stock index rose the instructions Opening the net at the end of a bull market, the stock positions accounting for up to 15.13%, is four insurance firms in the highest good., Xinhua is this round of the bull market in realized gains the highest rate, but it is also the largest exposures at the end of the bull market. After a bull market, Xinhua good girl from the man into a woman. you made a profit point of praise for the risk you face Nie Bahan!
3. Pacific Insurance [microblogging]
CPIC and Ping belong to the stock market bull market start position has been more than 8% of the company, and are subjected to impairment of suffering, because the total yields are lower than the net rate, but slightly better than the CPIC day a little peace, positions low percentage point, low point of impairment loss, and when the bull market started the turnaround has been achieved. With this background, we can understand, why would significantly lighten CPIC first wave of the bull market in the second half of 2014, long-term After the hold-up suddenly ushered in the PLA, and quickly cash is entirely rational, reasonable.
Data mining show, stock funds average annual market value of CPIC 2014 about 63.5 billion yuan, 6.9 billion yuan of income realized during the year post, yield more than 10%, yield revenue of 2.5 billion yuan, profit rate of about 4 percent, total realized investment gains rate 14% (excluding the floating surplus), certainly much higher than other asset classes, but peek into the mad cow seems to have changed his mind CPIC.
After Table 7 shows, CPIC in the fourth quarter of 2014, the fund significantly lighten up about 80 percent, the first quarter of 2015 and the same in the case of index fund positions resumed, the stock is somewhat Opening the second quarter, the stock rose in the case of Under slightly lighten up, final performance for the first half of 2015 increased by more than 60% of the positions. Thus, CPIC will only achieve a post revenue pushed the entire combined 1.7 percent in 2015 to lighten up slightly in the second quarter, well below the Brothers, also retained a 1.4 percent floating surplus. However, at the end of the bull market CPIC stock positions accounted for only 8.62%, significantly lower than the other three companies, a quarter of its 2015 Opening point is 3,000 points -3400 points on the card, and the current point quite, so the current situation should be hovering at the breakeven line.
4. Ping An Insurance Group's investment portfolio
Ping is a comprehensive financial group, we only focus on their insurance portfolio. Data show that its net investment yield has been in the forefront of the industry, but the stock price difference yields, due to the relatively large when the bull market started to bear the loss or impairment Fukui, at the end of the bull market have failed to implement the first wave of post earnings coverage impairment, and, in the second wave of the bull market has also realized the difference between yields only pulled 2.6 percent of the entire composition, retained earnings rate was not disclosed, this was generally and CPIC flat. But peace at the end of the bull market of the stock positions accounting for up to nearly 15%.
5. Based on the overall performance index of Comparative bull
For the four A-share insurers complex, bull operation result is different, though not simply identify the level, but as an academic research paper Release bull overall performance index such an indicator, just above the bull to do performance analysis involves an academic summary.
This paper argues that an investor in the bull market of the outcome can be a comprehensive analysis from three angles: one realizes how much yield (including spreads and dividends) in a bull market, since not all companies have to disclose these data, we to use an index like everyone close to disclose to replace: the whole assembly pulled high yield spreads (yield = total investment earnings released - Net investment yield), this indicator is of course the higher the better, and second, the bull stock positions at the end of the proportion of the total portfolio, fell mean the end of the bull market, this ratio is of course the lower the better, at the apex clearing called Warren, the third indicator is retained positions floating profit ratio, which is the residual stock position against the downside, of course, the higher the better, but this indicator is not all companies are disclosed, so temporarily omit this formula is reduced to this article:
Bull spreads pushed up overall performance index = portfolio yield - Closing stock positions accounting
Obviously, the overall performance index bull evaluation rule this indicator is: count the greater the value the better, because the results in Table 8 are negative, so the absolute value of the small ones for the big CPIC we calculate two values that correspond to other companies. The fund all equity funds or contains non-equity funds.
The overall result was slightly better performance of country life, because it implements a higher post earnings, but the end position is not very high, it is slightly less safe, how much revenue did not materialize, the remaining positions burden is not small. As CPIC and Xinhua it should not be a conclusion, but also a lot of information to assist the judge, such as Xinhua remaining positions where the cost line, and so on.
The author is an associate professor of Foreign Economic and Trade University [microblogging] Insurance Institute
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